Karzai heading for unpopular winDexter Filkins, Kabul
June 29, 2009
WITH Afghanistan's nationwide election only weeks away President Hamid Karzai appears likely to win, while at the same time being deeply unpopular.

Many blame Mr Karzai, who has led Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, for the failures that have plagued the US-led mission in the past eight years, from the resurgence of the Taliban to the explosion of the poppy trade.

Yet at the same time, Mr Karzai enjoys a commanding lead in the race for the presidency, to be decided in an election on August 20. Since the beginning of the year, Mr Karzai has deftly outmanoeuvred a once formidable array of opponents, either securing their backing or relegating them to the status of long shots.

Mr Karzai's unpopularity and the likelihood of his victory have cast a pall of resignation over the campaign, with many Afghans preparing for another five years of a leader they feel they already know too well.

The danger, say Mr Karzai's opponents and other leading Afghans, is a kind of national demoralisation, which will discourage Afghans from voting and dash hopes for substantial progress after the election.

For the US, the prospect of Mr Karzai's re-election risks an even closer association with an unpopular president with a record of mismanagement. With the Taliban stronger than ever — early this month, attacks reached their highest level since 2001 — a Karzai victory could threaten the US-led push to turn the war around.

"Karzai will not change, he has demonstrated that," said Ashraf Ghani, once a close friend but now running against Mr Karzai. "If he wins, there will be a downward spiral."

US officials, who have provided indispensable support for Mr Karzai since he took office in 2001, have recently tried to put him at some distance. New US ambassador Karl Eikenberry took the unusual step last week of attending news conferences of the leading challengers to Mr Karzai, including Mr Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister.

The Obama Administration has reversed the previous US policy of nearly unconditional support for Mr Karzai. President Barack Obama has chastised Mr Karzai for his Government's weakness and corruption.

Yet there is a widespread perception that Mr Karzai is the US favourite. Some US officials express resignation that they may be stuck with him for five more years. His unpopularity was spelled out in a recent poll by the International Republican Institute, a non-partisan group that the US Government supports.

Only 31 per cent of Afghans said they would vote for Mr Karzai again, down from the 54 per cent of votes he received in the 2004 election. If no candidate wins 50 per cent of the vote, the two top voter-getters would face each other in a run-off.

Yet the same IRI survey found Mr Karzai easily outpolling his rivals. Only 7 per cent favoured Mr Abdullah and just 2 per cent Mr Ghani, and they are considered to be Mr Karzai's most serious rivals. In Trieste the Group of Eight leading powers have turned their attention to stabilising Afghanistan and Pakistan in the leadup to the election. Afghanistan has been flooded with refugees fleeing a Pakistani army offensive in the Swat valley.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said the talks focussed on "the development of economic infrastructure - opening trade corridors.

NEW YORK TIMES, AFP