Monday, July 20, 2009

This was on Ninemsn, Australia's news portal.

By Chris Flood , Financial Times, 20 Jul 2009

A poor start to the monsoon season in India has highlighted concerns about the impact of poor rainfall on agricultural output.

India is the world's largest sugar consumer and sugar prices in London and New York rose on Monday after a government minister warned that some important cane growing areas had received very little rain.
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Sharad Pawar, farm minister, told parliament there had been very little rain in at Bihar state, where corn, sugar cane and rice are grown, and the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, the country's top sugar cane producer.

Liffe October white sugar futures rose $9.20, or 2 per cent, to $467.4 a tonne, while ICE October raw sugar futures rose 0.36 cents, or 2.1 per cent, to 17.66 cents a pound

June was an unusually dry month in India, with the lowest rainfall in more than eight decades. Rainfall has also been below normal in July, delaying planting of rice, sugar and soyabeans in some areas.

Last week, India's government decided to reimpose a ban on wheat exports just 10 days after a decision to allow 1.5m tonnes of wheat and wheat products to be shipped abroad.

The sudden change of mind was viewed as surprising by traders. India had enjoyed three successive good wheat harvests. Stocks have recovered to adequate levels, sufficient for more than 70 days of consumption, so the unexpected resumption of the export ban was seen as a possible early warning that supply shortages might return.

Along with other Asian countries, India banned grain exports two years ago when global supplies were tight, prompting panic buying by some consumers.

"The Indian wheat export ban has emphasised the critical nature of food security in such a heavily populated country, and how weather may threaten this security," said Emmanuel Jayet, head of agricultural commodities research at Société Générale.

"The slow start of the monsoon may be related to the almost confirmed return of an El Niño-type event, and there is a growing sense that the major weather disruptions affecting agricultural production may be directly related to climate change."

Cocoa prices rose after better-than-expected demand data from North America, released on Friday, which attracted follow-through buying from short-term momentum players.

ICE September cocoa futures hit a five-month high of $2,889 a tonne and later traded up $105, or3.8 per cent, at 2,870 a tonne, gaining 8.4 per cent in the past two sessions. Liffe December cocoa futures rose £38, or 2.1 per cent, to £1,820 a tonne, up 6.3 per cent during the past two sessions.

In oil markets, Nymex August West Texas Intermediate rose 20 cents to $63.76 after reaching a high of $64.90. ICE September Brent gained 42 cents at $65.80 a barrel after hitting $66.70. Dollar weakness, gains for stock markets and better-than-expected data from China last week were cited by traders as providing support for oil prices.

Base metals were led higher by copper, which hit a 2009 high of $5,455 a tonne before easing back to $5,365, up 1 per cent.

Gold jumped above $950, rising 1.9 per cent to a high of $954.90 a troy ounce.

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