AFGHANISTAN: 'Not Only Afghans Want NATO Forces Out'
U.S. Army troops in Kunar province, Afghanistan.

BY BERNHARD SCHELL

BERLIN (IDN) - Most publics in countries around the world believe that the Afghan people want NATO forces out, says a new survey. The poll, spanning 20 nations, finds that on average 53 percent of publics share that view, while 30 percent assume that most Afghans want U.S. and European troops to stay.

What lends a significant dimension to the poll is that the assumptions within every nation about the attitudes of the Afghan public are highly correlated with their attitudes about the need for an early exit strategy or continuing the military operations.

The findings by WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) come in the run-up to the presidential elections in Afghanistan, a country positioned in a geostrategic location that connects South and Central Asia and Middle East. The critical importance of the elections on August 20 is underlined by U.S. President Barack Obama's remarks July 14 after an Oval Office meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende.

Obama said if the Afghan presidential election comes off successfully, and if the U.S. and its coalition partners continue training Afghan security forces and take a more effective approach to economic development, "then my hope is that we will be able to begin transitioning into a different phase in Afghanistan".

This will be the country's second democratic election. The previous 2004 Afghan election was held on October 9, 2004, in which President Hamid Karzai turned out the winner allowing him to serve a five-year term.

The president made the remarks in the second week of a thrust by an estimated 4,000 troops that are carrying out one of the biggest U.S. military operations in Afghanistan since the Taliban was removed from power in 2001. These Marines reinforce the dispatch of an additional 17,000 forces.

The global poll of 19,178 respondents was conducted between April 4 and June 18 this year by Washington-based WPO. The survey was carried out in some of the NATO member states and in most of the world's largest nations -- China, India, USA, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Russia -- as well as Mexico, Germany, Great Britain, France, Poland, Ukraine, Kenya, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, the Palestinian territories, and South Korea.

The countries polled represent 62 percent of the world population. Publics in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau were also polled. Margins of error range from approximately 3 to 4 percent. Not all questions were asked in all nations.

'NATO FORCES SHOULD LEAVE'

Among those who believe that the Afghan people want NATO forces to leave, 76 percent say that NATO forces should leave now. Among those who opine that the Afghan people want NATO forces to stay, 83 percent say NATO forces should stay. Overall, on average, 37 percent think that NATO forces should remain in Afghanistan, while on average 53 percent think the mission should be ended now.

At the same time there is considerable concern about the possibility of the Taliban regaining power. In 18 of 20 countries polled most think that it would be bad if the Taliban were to regain power in Afghanistan. An average of 61 percent says that it would be bad and just 21 percent says that it would be good.

In Pakistan, where many Afghan Taliban are based, 61 percent of the public also say that it would be bad if the Taliban were to regain power.

"Even though there is widespread concern about the possibility of the Taliban regaining power in Afghanistan, most people seem to be saying that the Afghan people should decide whether or when NATO forces leave," comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

Significantly, the belief that most Afghans want NATO forces out is not only widespread in majority-Muslim nations, including Pakistan (86 percent), the Palestinian territories (74 percent), and Egypt (67 percent). This view is also widely held in Russia (63 percent), Germany (55 percent), and Mexico (76 cent).

On the other hand, the belief that the Afghan people want NATO troops to stay is the dominant position only in India (57percent), the US (56 percent), Nigeria (53 percent), Kenya (52 percent), and the majority-Muslim nation of Azerbaijan (44 percent to 36 percent).

Within every nation people's assumptions about the attitudes of the Afghan public are highly correlated with their attitudes about continuing the operation.

But how do the Afghan people feel? As WPO points out, the most recent polling in Afghanistan was conducted by ABC/BBC/ARD in January of this year. At that time a majority of 59 percent of Afghans supported the NATO forces' presence in the country. However, this approval was down from 67 percent in 2007, and majorities also expressed frustration with the way the mission was being conducted.

In the WPO poll, national assumptions about Afghan public attitudes are also reflected in national attitudes about the recent increase in U.S. troops in Afghanistan. On average, 54 percent disapprove of the increase and 34 percent are opposed.

However, in all of the nations where more people believe that Afghans support the NATO presence, most people support the increase. In nearly all of the nations where more believe that Afghans oppose NATO presence, most people oppose the increase.

The two exceptions to this pattern are Britain and Iraq, says WPO director Kull. Though in both cases a large number of people polled believe that Afghans want NATO to leave, in Britain a diverse group comprising 50 percent of those surveyed approves of the increase. In Iraq views are divided.

DIVIDED ON UN AUTHORIZATION

Views are divided also when asked what they think about the UN-authorized NATO mission to stabilize Afghanistan and defend against the Taliban. While nine nations approve, 10 disapprove. On average 44 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. Here again, attitudes are highly correlated with assumptions about the attitudes of the Afghan people, WPO survey found.

Last January NATO-led troops in Afghanistan numbered around 55,100 from 26 NATO, 10 partner and 2 non-NATO / non-partner countries, including contributions from Canada, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Poland and most members of the European Union and NATO also including Australia, New Zealand, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Singapore.

The intensity of the combat faced by contributing nations varies greatly, with the U.S., Britain, and Canada sustaining substantial casualties in intensive combat operations. The United States has approximately 23,300 troops in ISAF (International Security Assistance Force).

ISAF was established in the wake of the Bonn Agreement in December 2001, when a number of prominent Afghans met under UN auspices in Germany. ISAF was initially charged with securing Kabul and surrounding areas from the Taliban, al Qaeda and factional warlords, so as to allow for the establishment of the Afghan Transitional Administration headed by President Karzai.

In October 2003, the UN Security Council authorized the expansion of the ISAF mission throughout Afghanistan. Subsequently it expanded the mission in four main stages over the whole of the country. Since 2006, ISAF has been involved in more intensive combat operations in southern Afghanistan, a tendency which continued in 2007 and 2008. Clashes between the Taliban and ISAF in other parts of Afghanistan are also on the increase. – 25.07.09
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